Sources

Everything this site leans on

Listed so you can check it. Where scholars disagree, both sides are here — a bibliography that cited only the argument this site finds persuasive would be advocacy dressed as scholarship.

Dating the crucifixion — the case

  • Humphreys, C. & Waddington, W. G., "Dating the Crucifixion," Nature 306 (1983), 743–746. The original astronomical argument.
  • Humphreys, C. & Waddington, W. G., "The Jewish Calendar, a Lunar Eclipse and the Date of Christ's Crucifixion," Tyndale Bulletin 43.2 (1992), 331–351. The fuller case, and their defence against the visibility objection.
  • Humphreys, C., The Mystery of the Last Supper (Cambridge University Press, 2011). Book-length treatment, including his pre-exilic-calendar reconciliation of John against the synoptics. One proposal, not a consensus.

Dating the crucifixion — the objections

  • Schaefer, B. E., "Lunar Visibility and the Crucifixion," Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 31 (1990), 53–67. Argues the AD 33 eclipse would have been at most marginally perceptible: never more than ~59% of the disc shadowed, with light leakage washing out the reddening.
  • Gonzalez, G., "Reevaluating the Visibility of the April 3, AD 33, Lunar Eclipse from Jerusalem," Bibliotheca Sacra 179:713 (Jan–Mar 2022). Concludes the closing phase would have been visible under normal conditions, but that a khamsin most likely prevented it — removing a principal argument for AD 33.
  • Schaefer, B. E., "Lunar Crescent Visibility," QJRAS 37.4 (1996), 759–768. On how hard first sighting actually is to predict — the problem underneath every reconstruction on this site.

The Jewish calendar

  • Stern, S., Calendar and Community: A History of the Jewish Calendar, 2nd Century BCE – 10th Century CE (Oxford University Press, 2001). The standard history. Diversity before unity; no uniform intercalation as late as the sixth century; early lunar calendars running late, with Passover always after the equinox.
  • Talmud, Sanhedrin 11a–b. The pre-fixed criteria for declaring a leap year: equinox, ripeness of the barley, condition of the roads.
  • Encyclopaedia Judaica, "Calendar." Records the competing intercalation sequences that persisted into the tenth century.
  • Jewish Encyclopedia, "Calendar, History of." On Hillel II and the traditional date (~358–359 CE) for the fixed calculated calendar.

The Islamic calendar

  • Qur'an 9:36–37, with Tafsir al-Tabari and Tafsir Ibn Kathir on 9:37. The abolition of nasī', proclaimed at the Farewell Pilgrimage — the ruling that makes the Hijri year refuse to correct.

Roman and historical framing

  • Tacitus, Annals XV.44. Independent attestation of the execution under Pilate during Tiberius's reign.

Validating the engine against independent chronology

  • Parker, R. A. & Dubberstein, W. H., Babylonian Chronology 626 B.C. – A.D. 75, 4th ed. (Brown University Press, 1971). The standard reference chronology: 8,670 Babylonian month beginnings with Julian equivalents. This site scores its visibility criteria against the whole table. Note that P&D's month-starts are themselves largely computed rather than observed — see the caveat on the robustness page.
  • Schoch, C., lunar visibility algorithm, in Langdon, S. & Fotheringham, J. K., The Venus Tablets of Ammizaduga (1928). The criterion Parker and Dubberstein computed their tables with. It matters because it means our comparison is against a reconstruction, not against raw sightings.
  • van Gent, R. H., The Babylonian Calendar (Utrecht University). Digitisation of the P&D tables, and the independent comparison — modern lunar theory plus Yallop against P&D, 680 of 8,670 lunations differing — that this site uses to check its own astronomy end to end. webspace.science.uu.nl
  • Bennett, C., Babylonian Calendar Conversions (Tyndale House). A version of the P&D table corrected against the astronomical diaries, goal-year texts and eclipse reports. The next thing worth folding in, because those corrections are where observation actually enters.

The astronomy

  • Meeus, J., Astronomical Algorithms, 2nd ed. (Willmann-Bell, 1998). Ch. 49 for the new-moon series, ch. 47 for lunar position, ch. 25 for solar longitude. The engine implements these directly, and its agreement with an independent implementation is measured rather than asserted.
  • Yallop, B. D., A Method for Predicting the First Sighting of the New Crescent Moon, RGO NAO Technical Note 69 (1997). The criterion that best reproduces the reference chronology in our own testing — 91.97% of 8,670 Babylonian months.
  • Odeh, M. Sh., "New Criterion for Lunar Crescent Visibility," Experimental Astronomy 18 (2004), 39–64. Fitted to a larger modern sighting database than Yallop, but its bands A–B are markedly more permissive, and against P&D it runs systematically a day early.
  • Espenak, F. & Meeus, J., polynomial expressions for ΔT (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center). The dynamical-to-universal time correction — nearly three hours at this epoch.
A note on how to read a bibliography like this one. The presence of a citation is not an endorsement of its conclusion, and the sources above contradict each other on purpose. Humphreys and Schaefer cannot both be right about what was visible over Jerusalem that evening. This site does not adjudicate between them; it shows you that the adjudication is still open.

What has actually been checked

A bibliography records what a project cites. It does not record whether anyone opened any of it. This section does, because the gap between those two things is where most citation errors live — and on this site the gap is currently large.

Claims researched19 of 32Coverage59%Argument actually read19Cited but unread0Primary edition consulted1
Three statuses, and the middle one is doing the work. unverified means written from memory — it may well be right, and nobody has checked. secondary means checked against an accessible source that reports the claim, with the URL and date recorded below; that is a real improvement on memory and it is not the same as reading the primary text, because a secondary source can misreport and second-hand references look more solid at every hop. verified means the edition itself was consulted. Nothing on this site is verified. Upgrading an entry means opening a book, not finding a better web page.
ClaimStatusWhat the source establishesChecked at
tacitusAnn15secondaryThat Annals was composed c. AD 116 and that 15.44 places the execution of Christus under Pilate in the reign of Tiberius. Tacitus calls Pilate PROCURATOR. Pilate's actual title was prefect, as this site's own entry for the Pilate Stone records — the stone reads praefectus. Whether the slip is Tacitus's, a copyist's, or evidence of dependence on a Christian source is argued both ways; procurator became the standard title for equestrian governors only after AD 44. Worth noting that our archaeology section and our textual section disagree here, and that the disagreement is real rather than an error on this site.source
2026-07-28
josephusAnt18secondaryAntiquities 18.89: Vitellius sends Marcellus to Judaea and orders Pilate to Rome; Pilate, "after spending ten years in Judaea", sets out, and Tiberius dies before he arrives. This is the whole basis of the AD 26–36 window every search on this site uses. The ten years are explicit; the start date is inferred from them plus Tiberius's death in March 37.source
2026-07-28
josephusTestimoniumsecondaryThe state of scholarly opinion on Antiquities 18.63–64. A survey of 52 scholars: 4 hold it entirely genuine, 6 mostly genuine, 20 genuine with some interpolations, 9 with several, and 13 hold it wholly interpolated. So roughly three-quarters accept an authentic core, and about a quarter do not. "He was the Christ" is almost universally taken as interpolated. This is why the passage is flagged contested on /accounts/ rather than either used or dropped.source
2026-07-28
talmudSanhedrinsecondaryInstone-Brewer, Tyndale Bulletin 62.2 (2011), 269–294: the Munich manuscript of b. Sanhedrin 43a preserves material censored from the printed editions, and the oldest recoverable layer reads "On the Eve of Passover they hung Jesus of Nazareth for sorcery and leading Israel astray." Confirms both the censorship point and the eve-of-Passover reading. Instone-Brewer identifies the Yeshu with Jesus of Nazareth, so that identification is not fringe — but it remains contested, and this is one scholar's stratification of a late tradition.source
2026-07-28
tiberiusReckoningsecondaryThat the fifteenth year of Tiberius is reckoned either from the sole reign (Augustus dies 19 August AD 14, giving AD 28–29) or from a co-regency about AD 12 (giving AD 26–27), and that the inclusive/exclusive counting method moves it a further year. This is the single biggest lever in the whole model — leverSwing() puts it fractionally ahead of the Galatians reading. The co-regency case rests partly on Antioch coinage of AD 12 bearing Tiberius's head. Both reckonings are live in print.source
2026-07-28
steinmannTiberiusverifiedAndrew E. Steinmann, "Reckoning Tiberius's Reign and Jesus's Baptism: First- and Second-Century Evidence Concerning Tiberius's Fifteenth Year (Luke 3:1)", Tyndale Bulletin 73 (2022), 91–118. Surveys the first- and second-century literary, numismatic and inscriptional evidence and concludes: "there is no support for an earlier dating of Tiberius's reign. Thus, it is highly unlikely that Luke or his readers would have understood the fifteenth year of Tiberius as occurring before AD 29." He places the fifteenth year at late summer AD 28 to late summer AD 29. Directly attacks this site's largest parameter. Steinmann finds Tacitus, Suetonius, Cassius Dio, Philo, Josephus, Clement of Alexandria and Tertullian — Roman, Jewish and Christian, east and west — "all unanimous in reckoning Tiberius's reign after Augustus's death". If he is right, the co-regency settings of tiberiusEpoch are not one defensible option among four; they are unsupported by any first- or second-century witness. Restricting the sweep accordingly REVERSES this site's ranking: AD 33 rises from 5.8% to 18.5% and AD 30 falls from 12.1% to 10.2%.source
2026-07-28
hoehnerMinistrysecondaryHoehner's actual argument for the fourth Passover, quoted verbatim by Steinmann (n. 3): "The Passover of John 2:13 is too early for the incident of the disciples plucking grain... Therefore, the plucking of the grain would fit well around the time of the Passover between the Passovers mentioned in John 2:13 and 6:4." Citing Harold W. Hoehner, "The Chronology of Jesus" in Handbook for the Study of the Historical Jesus, ed. Holmén & Porter (Leiden: Brill, 2011), 2337–2339. The fourth Passover comes from the SYNOPTIC grain-plucking incident (Matt 12:1; Mark 2:23; Luke 6:1), which needs a spring between John's first and second Passovers. It does not come from John 5:1, which Steinmann describes as "an unnamed feast, either Tabernacles or Pentecost". This is a peer-reviewed scholar quoting Hoehner with page numbers, so it is far stronger than the web summary that first corrected this — but it is still Hoehner at one remove, and remains secondary.source
2026-07-28
delphisecondaryThe Delphi letter of Claudius names his 26th imperial acclamation. Other inscriptions place the 27th before 1 August 52 and both within his twelfth tribunician power (25 January 52 – 24 January 53), so the letter falls in the first half of AD 52 and Gallio's proconsular year in about 51–52. Carries the other dominant lever. Paul's eighteen months in Corinth therefore include AD 51.source
2026-07-28
cor11secondaryAretas IV Philopatris reigned c. 9 BC to AD 40 and was succeeded by Malichus II. A caveat this site did not previously carry: it is disputed whether Aretas controlled Damascus at all. Some hold the ethnarch of 2 Corinthians 11:32 governed a Nabataean community within the city rather than the city itself, and others propose a brief annexation only after AD 37. If the latter is right the constraint tightens sharply instead of being the weak upper bound the sweep treats it as.source
2026-07-28
tertulliansecondaryAdversus Judaeos 8: the passion under Tiberius, in the consulship of Rubellius Geminus and Fufius Geminus, in March, at the time of the passover, on the eighth day before the Kalends of April. The consuls fix AD 29 and the Kalends formula fixes 25 March. Checked against this site's own ephemeris: that day was a Friday, and it cannot be Passover — 14 Nisan AD 29 falls twenty-five days later. Steinmann (Tyndale Bulletin 73, 104–105) explains why, and better than this site's own first guess: Tertullian "apparently misapplied the chronological data given for Jesus's baptism at Luke 3:1,23, crediting it instead to the time of the crucifixion" — he has Christ dying in Tiberius's fifteenth year AND aged about thirty, which is Luke's BAPTISM data. Steinmann also documents that Tertullian "is very unreliable in matters of chronology", getting several imperial reign-lengths wrong and omitting Claudius entirely, and notes that in Against Marcion he contradicts himself by placing the fifteenth year at the start of the ministry. Dunn (ZAC 7, 2003) attributes the distortion to Tertullian bending the chronology to fit Daniel 9:24–27.source
2026-07-28
gal12secondaryGalatians 1:18 — "Then after three years I did go up to Jerusalem to visit Cephas and stayed with him fifteen days." Galatians 2:1 — "Then after fourteen years I went up again to Jerusalem with Barnabas, taking Titus along with me." The ambiguity this site treats as a load-bearing parameter is real and not manufactured: NEITHER verse states what its interval is counted FROM. The three years of 1:18 count from an implied starting point never made explicit, and the fourteen of 2:1 likewise. Whether they run consecutively or overlap is exactly the undecided question, and it is worth three years — the distance between AD 30 and AD 33.source
2026-07-28
johnPassoverssecondaryJohn names Passover at 2:13, 6:4 and 11:55 — three, explicitly. John 5:1 reads only "After this there was a festival of the Jews", naming nothing. THIS CORRECTED AN ERROR IN THIS CODEBASE. The four-Passover option was described here as "adding the unnamed feast of John 5:1", i.e. as though the fourth Passover came from reading 5:1 as one. It does not. 5:1 is variously identified as Purim, Pentecost, Tabernacles or Passover with no agreement, and Hoehner — the very scholar this site cites for the long ministry — takes it as TABERNACLES, dating it to October AD 31. His fourth Passover is instead inferred from the gap between 2:13 and 6:4 being about two years, so that a Passover falls between them which John never mentions. Both the parameter label and the AD 33 reconstruction have been rewritten.source
2026-07-28
luke31secondaryLuke 3:1–2 — "In the fifteenth year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar, when Pontius Pilate was governor of Judea, and Herod was ruler of Galilee... the word of God came to John son of Zechariah in the wilderness." Note what it dates: the beginning of JOHN's activity, not Jesus's. Every reconstruction that runs from this verse to a crucifixion year has to bridge that gap with a baptism lag and a ministry length, which is why both are swept.source
2026-07-28
luke323secondaryLuke 3:23 — "Jesus was about thirty years old when he began his work." The only bridge from the ministry back to the birth, and the word doing the work is "about". It sits in the same passage as Luke 3:1, so a birth window derived from it corroborates nothing about the ministry date — one source counted twice.source
2026-07-28
acts18secondaryActs 18:11–12 — "He stayed there a year and six months, teaching the word of God among them. But when Gallio was proconsul of Achaia, the Jews made a united attack on Paul and brought him before the tribunal." The eighteen months and the Gallio synchronism, both confirmed. This is the link that lets the Delphi inscription date Paul, and through Paul, everything counted back from him.source
2026-07-28
john1912secondaryJohn 19:12 — "From then on Pilate tried to release him, but the Jews cried out, 'If you release this man, you are no friend of Caesar.'" The entire Sejanus argument rests on this one sentence. Reading it as evidence that Pilate had already lost his patron is an inference about Roman court politics drawn from a line of reported dialogue, which is why the constraint is quarantined as disputed.source
2026-07-28
acts220secondaryActs 2:20 — "The sun shall be turned to darkness and the moon to blood, before the coming of the Lord's great and glorious day." Peter is quoting Joel. Whether a quoted prophecy is also a report of an observed eclipse is the whole of the Humphreys–Waddington argument and the whole of the objection to it.source
2026-07-28
velleiussecondarySuetonius, Tiberius 21: after Tiberius returned from Germany and triumphed, the consuls carried a law that he should govern the provinces jointly with Augustus and hold the census with him. The Fasti Praenestini date the triumph to 23 October AD 12; Velleius mentions the increase of powers before the triumph, Suetonius after it. The basis of every co-regency reckoning of Luke 3:1, and the source of the AD 12 / AD 13 spread this site sweeps. The two authors disagree about the ORDER of the triumph and the grant, which is part of why the date of the law is unsettled. Antioch coinage of AD 12 bearing Tiberius's head is cited on the same side.source
2026-07-28
humphreysWaddingtonsecondaryHumphreys, C. J. & Waddington, W. G., "Dating the Crucifixion", Nature 306 (1983), 743–746. Journal, volume and pages confirmed. The eclipse is calculated as visible from Jerusalem between about 6:20 and 6:50 pm on 3 April AD 33, with the moon reddened.source
2026-07-28

One record is deliberately marked "citation only"

Steinmann's 2022 Tyndale Bulletin article addresses this site's single most sensitive parameter — how Tiberius's fifteenth year should be reckoned — and the full text was not accessible. So the bibliographic details are recorded and the conclusion is not, because this site does not know it. Citing a paper whose argument you have not read, as though it supported your position, is a specific and common form of dishonesty; the contentSeen flag exists so it cannot happen here by accident, and a test fails if a record claims otherwise.

Where the site contradicts itself, on purpose

Tacitus calls Pilate procurator. The Pilate Stone, described in this site's archaeology section, reads praefectus. Both are reported as found rather than harmonised: the title only became standard for equestrian governors after AD 44, and whether the slip is Tacitus's, a copyist's, or a sign of dependence on a Christian source is argued both ways. A site that quietly fixed this would be tidier and less honest.

Still outstanding: 13 claims. They are listed explicitly in research.js rather than inferred from absence, so that adding a source without researching it shows up as an omission instead of silently counting as fine. Most are scriptural references whose wording is not in dispute; the ones that matter are Velleius and Suetonius on the co-regency grant, Galatians 1:18 and 2:1, and Schwartz on Pilate's arrival — because those three carry the levers that actually decide between AD 30 and AD 33.